GLOBAL - Alltech predicts a contraction in global feed production in 2013

High mycotoxin contamination in US harvest plus first ever year-on-year drop in feed production projected for 2013, Alltech VP predicts
October 11, 2012

Speaking at the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN, in Rome, Alltech vice president Aidan Connolly, presented the results of the 2011 Alltech Feed Tonnage Survey, along with results from previous surveys, showing a steady increase in feed production year on year.

The 2011 survey, covering 128 countries, put the total feed at 873 million tonnes. The 2012 survey, due to be published soon and covering more than 130 countries, is expected to show a further increase. For 2013 however, Connolly, presenting at the IFIF-FAO joint meeting, predicted a contraction in the region of 3 – 5%, driven by the following three factors:

~ Continued global recession affecting protein consumption.

~ The conversion of large amounts of feed stocks and materials into biofuels.

~ Reduced feed supply due to a global drought, specifically in the US.

In addition, a mycotoxin survey, also carried out by Alltech, indicates that the surviving US harvest will be highly contaminated with up to 37 different mycotoxins, due to crop vulnerability from adverse weather conditions. The resulting percentage contraction in feed production will then be determined by the ability of integrated food producers, farmers and food companies to pass on the increased feed material cost to consumers, without any loss in overall consumption levels.

“We are facing into a completely new era for the agriculture industry where, for the first time in history, feed production for 2013 will be lower than for 2012, and it is clear that efficiency in converting feed into food will be more critical to food companies than ever,” said Connolly.  

Alltech told, however,  that while overall feed production is expected to drop, aquafeed production will continue to increase.