Global cumulative production of fishmeal and fish oil remains down

In China, local fishmeal producers are encountering difficulties in selling their products due to a poorer demand and the abundance of standard quality fishmeal.

Credits: IFFO

December 22, 2023

The Marine Ingredients Organisation – IFFO reported that as of December 21, around 66% of the second Peruvian fishing season’s quota had been landed in the North-Center of the country. The early start of the second fishing season in the North-Center of Peru, which took place in October, and is usually scheduled in November, explains larger catches of small pelagics than usual when comparing October 2023 with October 2022.

In the USA, the menhaden fishing season officially ended in November. The new fishing season will resume in May 2024.

Cumulative total fishmeal production during the first ten months of 2023 was down by approximately 22% compared to the cumulative production reported through October 2022. These figures are based on a list of countries* considered in the IFFO reports. The predominant factor contributing to this decline must be attributed to the 60% year-on-year decrease in Peru, whose activities were heavily affected by the El Niño phenomenon and the subsequent cancellation of the April-June first fishing season of the year.

The total cumulative output for fish oil in the first 10 months of 2023 was 20% down year-on-year. The supply shortage in Peru – due to both fewer landings and lower oil yields – was the main cause for such negative performance. Chile remained the only country that registered a positive change year-on-year thanks to improved catches and higher-than-average oil yields in the south of the country.

China’s slow economic recovery impacting fishmeal and fish oil consumption

China’s domestic production of fishmeal and fish oil in Q4 2023 might exceed Q4 2022. Despite this, local fishmeal producers are encountering difficulties in selling their products due to a poorer demand and the abundance of standard quality fishmeal. As a result, the inventory of domestic fishmeal appears higher than it was a year ago. Cumulative imports of fishmeal from January to November have declined by 9.4% year-on-year, in line with the weaker domestic demand from both aqua and piglet feed producers and the reduced Peruvian supply.

China’s 2023 fishmeal consumption in aquaculture is not expected to surpass that of 2022, although a rebound in the global supply of marine ingredients might open new scenarios. Similarly, the pig sector is grappling with subdued prices, hovering around a low point. The anticipated higher seasonal demand for the period November-February has yet to materialize. At this point, farmers are banking on improvements in the second half of 2024.

*Peru, Chile, Denmark, Norway, Iceland, UK, Ireland and Faroe Islands, USA, South Africa, Ivory Coast, Mauritius, Spain