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A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is underway

Although most models predict ENSO-neutral conditions, there is a growing possibility of La Niña developing during the second half of 2010

May 13, 2010

A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is underway

A transition to ENSO-neutral conditions is expected by June 2010, which will continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer 2010, according to The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

El Niño weakened during April 2010 as positive surface temperature (SST) anomalies decreased across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. However, SST anomalies still exceeded +0.5°C across most of the Pacific at the end of the month. Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions is expected by June 2010, which will continueinto the Northern Hemisphere summer 2010.

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