The tropical Pacific Ocean has weakened to borderline El Niño-neutral levels. Sea surface temperatures across the tropical Pacific Ocean cooled further in the past fortnight, driven by cooler than average waters below the surface. Atmospheric indicators are also trending towards normal. Trade winds have been consistently near normal for some weeks. Typical El Niño cloud patterns are dissipating and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), while still negative, is steadily rising.

All international models suggest the tropical Pacific Ocean will continue to cool, with seven of eight models exceeding La Niña thresholds by September 2016. However, individual model outlooks show a large spread between neutral and La Niña scenarios.

The Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology states the likelihood of La Niña forming later in 2016 is around 50%.