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El Niño predicted to last into early spring 2016

There is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, and around an 80% chance it will last into early spring 2016, say climatologists at the Climate Prediction Center.

July 15, 2015


The latest El Niño /Southern Oscillation (ENSO) diagnostic from the Climate Prediction Center, warns of a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, and around an 80% chance it will last into early spring 2016.

The predictions are based on sea and sub-surface temperature and atmospheric anomalies, computed with respect to a 1981-2010 base period weekly mean, which reflect an ongoing and strengthening El Niño.

Across the contiguous United States, temperature and precipitation impacts associated with El Niño are expected to remain minimal during the Northern Hemisphere summer and increase into the late fall and winter. El Niño will likely contribute to a below normal Atlantic hurricane season, and to above-normal hurricane seasons in both the central and eastern Pacific hurricane basins.

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