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El Niño Update

Given the persistent warmth in the tropical Pacific Ocean, models continue to suggest an El Niño remains possible during the last quarter of 2014.

October 16, 2014


There is little change this month to predictions for El Niño. Tropical Pacific Ocean ENSO indicators remain within the neutral range, having failed to maintain sustained values typical of El Niño. However, given the persistent warmth in the tropical Pacific Ocean, models continue to suggest an El Niño remains possible during the last quarter of 2014. 

Most models predict El Niño to develop during October-December 2014 and to continue into early 2015.  The consensus of forecasters indicates a 2-in-3 chance of El Niño during the November 2014 - January 2015 season.  This El Niño will likely remain weak (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index between 0.5°C and 0.9°C) throughout its duration.  In summary, El Niño is favored to begin in the next 1-2 months and last into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome).

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