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Latest ENSO report for the Pacific Ocean

International climate models suggest the peak in El Niño sea surface temperatures is likely to occur before the end of the year, then gradually ease in the first quarter of 2016.

November 11, 2015

It is now six months since the 2015 El Niño became established in the Pacific.

During this time, oceanic and atmospheric indicators have been persistently strong, comparable to the events of 1997–98 and 1982–83. International climate models suggest the peak in El Niño sea surface temperatures is likely to occur before the end of the year, then gradually ease in the first quarter of 2016.

Sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific are now around 2.4 °C above average, the largest anomaly for this event so far. Other indicators of El Niño, such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), cloudiness near the Date Line, and trade winds, still reflect strong El Niño conditions, despite some weakening in the SOI over the past fortnight.

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