Is there an El Niño (ENSO phenomenon ) on the way? Because of its potential to disrupt marine life - and of particular interest to aquafeed producers - Peru's fisheries -  it is the topic of much discussion in the trade but even NOAA can only say "maybe".

Vernon Kousky, NOAA's lead ENSO scientist for more than 20 years, says, "Based on recent trends there is a 50 percent chance that weak El Niño conditions will develop late this year and continue through early 2007."

"At the moment, it is too early to be certain as to whether or not El Niño will develop," Kousky added. The El Niño forecast is based on the Climate Forecast System, or CFS, model and recent trends in the ocean-atmosphere system.

Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center website  (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts for the evolution of El Niño/La Niña are updated monthly in the Forecast Forum  section of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 5 October 2006.

If you want to receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

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