In trade year 2012/13 (October 2012 through September 2013) Brazil is projected to export more corn (24.5 million tons) than the United States (24.0 million), accoding to the latest USDA Feed Outlook Report. This is a dramatic change from the historical norm for the last century, when the U.S. share of world corn trade reached over 80 percent in 1979/80 and often exceeded two-thirds. In 2012/13, the U.S. share is forecast to fall to 24.6 percent while Brazil is forecast to increase to 25.1 percent.
In the first four months of the trade year (October-January), Brazil has exported 13.75 million tons of corn, more than double U.S. shipments of 5.9 million. Brazil’s corn exports are expected to slow significantly in coming months as soybean exports limit the transportation and port capacity available to move corn exports. However, over the last 8 months of the year, corn exports need to average only 1.3 million tons per month to reach the 24.5 million annual forecast. U.S. corn exports need to increase to an average 2.3 million tons per month to reach the projected 24.0 million. This is a relatively slow pace compared with recent years, but as of January 31, 2013, corn outstanding export sales were 5.5 million tons, down from 10.3 million a year earlier. Based on these figures, U.S. export sales and shipments of corn are expected to increase significantly in coming months.
U.S. corn use for 2012/13 is adjusted slightly this month to reflect diminished export prospects but higher food, seed, and industrial use. Corn ending stocks are projected higher. The projected corn price for 2012/13 is lowered $0.05 per bushel on the low end of the range and $0.35 per bushel on the high end of the range to $6.75 to $7.65 per bushel.
Download the full USDA ERS Feed Outlook report, published 02.12.2013 [PDF] from the link below: