FAO Predicts Moderate Shrimp recovery in 2015
With some recovery in supplies of farmed shrimp, the trend in international shrimp trade was positive in 2014 with increased imports in all major markets except Japan.
For 2015, moderate recovery is expected in farmed shrimp production in Thailand and also in Mexico, while India, Viet Nam and Indonesia will continue to focus more on vannamei aquaculture. Hence, overall production is expected to be better in 2015.
With some recovery in supplies of farmed shrimp, the trend in international shrimp trade was positive in 2014 with increased imports in all major markets except Japan
The USA continues to be the target market for many shrimp producing countries, however import demand has been weak since January 2015 due to the large unsold stocks imported in 2014. Primary demand in 2015 is also poor in Europe and in Japan, which has resulted in downward pressure on shrimp prices. Seasonal production could be delayed.
For 2015, world aquaculture experts foresee moderate recovery in farmed shrimp production in Thailand and also in Mexico, while India, Viet Nam and Indonesia will continue to focus more on vannamei aquaculture. Hence, overall production is expected to be better in 2015 compared with 2014. However, the first harvests of the season in India could be delayed until May due to the late stockings of the ponds. This same trend could occur in Thailand due to the ongoing draught in many farming regions. Moreover, farmers in the producing countries might be conservative in stocking their ponds due to the dwindling demand from the three major markets – the USA, EU and Japan. During January 2015, imports into the USA and Japan already were below last year’s level due to high local stocks. However, local inventories, particularly in the USA, may decrease if shrimp prices to the end consumer come down in the coming months. Unfortunately, many traders in the market are unable to reduce selling prices as they bought products at higher prices last year.
In the USA, demand for Indian shrimp may suffer due to the higher tariff rates under the latest review by the US Department of Commerce. In contrast, imports from Viet Nam may increase, which would be subject to reduced tariffs.
Meanwhile, the weakening of the euro is likely to reduce imports to the EU in the coming months. Japanese importers are also likely to be selective due to the weak yen though demand could be better demand for processed shrimp These trends leave only the US market to absorb future production. Viet Nam will also continue to import more raw materials from India for re-export to China and for processing of value-added products. As of late March this year, exports from India to Viet Nam intensified again.
Read the full May 2015 Shrimp Report from FAO GLOBEFISH