The International Grains Council (IGC) has released publicaly its five-year global supply and demand projection in full. This is the first time it has made this information available to non-members.
According to the report, world total grains output is expected to decline slightly in 2014/15, from the record level forecast for the current season, but then to rise by an average of 1.6% p.a. over the remainder of the five-year period, exceeding 2 billion tons by 2016/17. While some area expansion is anticipated, particularly in the major exporters such as the CIS and Brazil, the increase is largely driven by improving productivity. Firm demand growth is also expected and, while the absolute level of stocks is likely to rise, the ratio of stocks to use is projected to fall slightly to 18% by the end of the 2018/19, from 20% forecast for 2013/14. The projections indicate a marked increase in trade volumes over the five years, as increased demand is met by production growth in the key exporters,
most notably in South America and the Black Sea region.
Soyabean and rapeseed/canola production growth is expected to outpace grains and rice, against a background of strong demand from the crushing industry. Combined output growth is projected at an average of 2.1% p.a. in the medium term.
Oilseed stocks should recover, but the market is likely to remain relatively tight, with the stock-touse ratio is seen rising only slightly, to 12%
Table of Contents
- Maize (corn)
- Oats and rye
- Appendix Tables