Larger Foreign Crops Temper a Sharp Decline in U.S. Soybean Stocks

USDA’s Prospective Plantings report indicated that 2011 soybean planting would decline to 76.6 million acres from 77.4 million last year as farmers raised more corn and cotton. At the midway point for the 2010/11 crop year, U.S. soybean stocks were reported down to a 7-year low of 1.249 billion bushels. Despite declining supplies, improving prospects for South American soybean crops have stalled the upward momentum of prices. The forecast of the 2010/11 national average farm price was revised this month to $11.25-$11.75 per bushel.

Global soybean output in 2010/11 is forecast at a record 261 million metric tons, surpassing last season’s total of 260.2 million. In Brazil, record soybean yields are expected to raise its 2010/11 crop this month to 72 million tons from 70 million last month. Similarly, a better soybean yield forecast for Paraguay this month raised the 2010/11 production estimate to 8.1 million tons, compared to 7.5 million previously... Download full USDA Oil Crops Outlook report April 11, 2011 (PDF)