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US corn, wheat and soybean production down

US corn production is down 8% from last year and soybean growers are expected to decrease their production by 3% from 2021.

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October 13, 2022


US corn production is down 8% from last year, forecasted at 13.9 billion bushels and soybean growers are expected to decrease their production by 3% from 2021, forecasted at 4.31 billion bushels, according to the World Aquaculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) October report.

Soybean

US soybean production is forecasted at 4.3 billion bushels, down 65 million on lower yields. Harvested area is unchanged at 86.6 million acres. The soybean yield is projected at 49.8 bushels per acre, down 0.7 bushels from the September forecast. With lower production partly offset by higher beginning stocks, supplies are reduced by 31 million bushels. Soybean exports are reduced 40 million bushels to 2.05 billion with increased competition from South America.

The US season-average soybean price for 2022/23 is forecasted at $14.00 per bushel, down 35 cents. Soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged at $390.00 per short ton and 69 cents per pound respectively.

Soybean production for Brazil is increased 3 million tons to 152 million, reflecting a higher area reported by Brazil’s National Supply Company (CONAB). Rapeseed production for the EU is increased 1 million tons to 19.2 million on higher production for France, Germany, and Poland. Partly offsetting is a 0.5-million-ton reduction to 19.5 million for Canada’s canola crop on a lower yield.

Global 2022/23 soybean exports are raised 1 million tons to 168.8 million with higher exports for Argentina and Brazil that are partly offset by lower exports for the United States

and Paraguay. China’s soybean imports are raised 1 million tons to 98 million with higher global supplies. Global soybean ending stocks are raised 1.6 million tons to 100.5 million, mainly on higher stocks for Brazil.

Wheat

The global wheat outlook for 2022/23 wheat is for reduced supplies, consumption, trade, and stocks, WASDE reported. Supplies are lowered 1.9 million tons to 1,057.7 million on reduced production for the United States and Argentina more than offsetting higher EU production although world production remains at a record. Argentina is lowered 1.5 million tons to 17.5 million with reductions in both area harvested and yield on continued widespread dry conditions. EU production is raised 2.7 million tons to 134.8 million, mainly on higher government estimates from Poland and Germany.

Corn

Based on conditions as of October 1, US corn yields are expected to average 171.9 bushels per harvested acre, down 0.6 bushel from the previous forecast and down 4.8 bushels from 2021, according to Crop Production report by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). The area harvested for grain is forecasted at 80.8 million acres, unchanged from the previous forecast. The season-average corn price received by producers is raised 5 cents to $6.80 per bushel.

Foreign corn production is reduced as declines for the EU and Serbia are partly offset by an increase for India, WASDE reported. EU corn production is lowered reflecting reductions for Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, and France. India corn production is raised based on the latest government statistics.

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