Feed and residual use for the four feed grains (corn, sorghum, barley, and oats) and wheat, on a September-August marketing year basis, for 2018/19 is projected at 143.4 million metric tons, 0.2 million tons below last month’s projection and 3.2 million below the 146.6 million in 2017/18.
U.S. feed grain supplies are projected 2 million metric tons lower at 428.8 million due to reduced corn beginning stocks resulting from higher exports and slightly lower imports in the 2017/18 balance sheet. Use during 2018/19 is projected higher due to higher corn for ethanol and sorghum exports partially offset by lower sorghum food, seed, and industrial use and reduced corn feed and residual use. Total use is projected at 386.6 million tons, leaving ending stocks down slightly to 432.2 million.
World coarse grain production is projected to reach 1,336.8 million tons in 2018/19, a reduction of 4.3 million from last month’s forecast. Most of the reduction is for Russia (corn) and Ukraine (barley), with a partly offsetting increase for Argentina (barley). For the 2017/18 projection, coarse grain production is also reduced, down 1.5 million tons, mainly due to a cut in Brazil’s second-corn crop. The revisions to 2017/18 supply and demand reduce 2018/19 beginning stocks by 1.6 million tons, thereby decreasing overall coarse grain supplies even more.
