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USDA ERS: October 2017 Oil Crops Outlook

Compared to the prior estimate, sown soybean acreage for 2017/18 is estimated up 694,000 acres to a record 90.2 million. Even with the higher acreage, USDA’s October Crop Production report shaved the U.S. soybean production forecast for 2017/18 by 422,000 bushels to 4.431 billion. Global soybean production in 2017/18 is forecast down 0.6 million metric tons this month to 347.9 million.

October 26, 2017

Compared to the prior estimate, sown soybean acreage for 2017/18 is estimated up 694,000 acres to a record 90.2 million. Even with the higher acreage, USDA’s October Crop Production report shaved the U.S. soybean production forecast for 2017/18 by 422,000 bushels to 4.431 billion.

Forecast yields of soybeans for 2017/18 are seen lower at 49.5 bushels per acre from 49.9 bushels last month. The total supply of soybeans for 2017/18 is tightened by a lower-than-expected level of beginning stocks, at 301.3 million bushels. Forecasts of domestic and export demand for soybeans in 2017/18 are unchanged this month. Thus, this month’s decrease in season-ending stocks—from 475 million to 430 million—matches the decline for beginning stocks. The season-average price forecast is also unchanged at $8.35-$10.05 per bushel.

Global soybean production in 2017/18 is forecast down 0.6 million metric tons this month to 347.9 million. Soybean production in Ukraine for 2017/18 is forecast 600,000 tons lower this month to 4 million based on drought-related yield losses. With fewer supplies available from Ukraine, EU soybean imports in 2017/18 are seen 500,000 tons lower this month to 14 million.

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