The latest USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) lowered projected 2022 corn and soybean production due to low harvested area and yields.
U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2022/23 include higher beginning stocks and lower production, crush, exports, and ending stocks. Higher beginning stocks reflect a lower export forecast for 2021/22. Soybean production is projected at 4.4 billion bushels, down 152 million. Harvested area is down 0.6 million from the August forecast. The soybean yield forecast of 50.5 bushels per acre is down 1.4 bushels from last month. The crush forecast is reduced by 20 million bushels and the soybean export forecast is reduced by 70 million bushels on lower supplies. The U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at USD 14.35 per bushel, unchanged from last month. Soybean meal and oil prices are also unchanged at USD 390 per short ton and 69.0 cents per pound, respectively.
2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for lower supplies, smaller feed and residual use, reduced exports and corn used for ethanol, and tighter ending stocks. Projected beginning stocks for 2022/23 are 5 million bushels lower based on essentially offsetting export and corn used for ethanol changes for 2021/22. Corn production for 2022/23 is forecast at 13.9 billion bushels, down 415 million from last month on reductions to harvested area and yield. The national average yield is forecast at 172.5 bushels per acre, down 2.9 bushels. Harvested area for grain is forecast at 80.8 million acres, down 1.0 million. Feed and residual use are lowered by 100 million bushels based on a smaller crop and higher expected prices. Exports are cut 100 million bushels to 2.3 billion while corn used for ethanol is lowered by 50 million to 5.3 billion.
Global soybean stocks decline on lower U.S. production
The 2022/23 global soybean production forecast is revised down by 3.03 million metric tons this month on lower soybean production in the United States, which is partially offset by higher production in Canada and Ukraine, USDA Oil Crops Outlook reported. In addition, 2021/22 global soybean production is increased by 0.5 million metric tons with increased production in Uruguay.
In Canada, the 2022/23 soybean production increased this month by 0.4 million metric tons to 6.4 million metric tons due to higher soybean yield. The crop conditions are positive this season with the lately beneficial rainfall in southern Ontario.
In Ukraine, farmers planted more soybean acreage than expected, and the forecasted harvested acreage increased this month by 0.3 million hectares to 1.5 million. The yield is forecast at 2.33 tons per hectare, unchanged from last month. The weather conditions have been favorable this growing season. As a result of the higher area, the soybean production is increased this month by 0.7 million metric tons to 3.5 million.
In summary, the 2022/23 global soybean ending stocks are projected at 98.22 million metric tons, 2.49 million lower than last month’s forecast. This would be 9.2 million metric tons higher than 2021/22.