The latest USDA WASDE report projects global oilseed production for 2012/13 i at 465.7 million tons, down 5.1 million from last month. Lower soybean, cottonseed, and sunflowerseed production estimates are only partly offset by increases for peanuts and rapeseed.
Prices for soybeans and soybean meal for 2012/13 are raised this month. The U.S. season average soybean price is projected at $13.00 to $15.00 per bushel, up $1.00 on both ends of the range. Soybean meal prices are projected at $365 to $395 per short ton, up $30 on both ends of the range. The soybean oil price projection is unchanged at 52.5 to 56.5 cents per pound.
Global soybean production is projected at 267.2 million tons, down 3.9 million mostly due to lower production in the United States.
Higher soybean production for Canada resulting from increased area partly offsets the U.S. reduction. Rapeseed production is raised for Canada due to increased harvested area reflecting record plantings reported by Statistics Canada.
Sunflowerseed production is reduced for Russia based on indications from planting progress data reported by Russia’s Ministry of Agriculture.
Other changes include reduced rapeseed production for Russia and increased peanut, canola, and sunflowerseed production for the United States.
Global oilseed ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected at 63.1 million tons, down 2.7 million as reduced supplies are only partly offset by lower crush.
Lower soybean stocks in the United States and South America account for most of the change.
Global coarse grain supplies for 2012/13 are lowered 47.6 million tons mostly reflecting the 46.2-million-ton projected reduction in the U.S. corn crop.
Partly offsetting is a 1.3-million-ton increase in EU-27 corn production, mostly reflecting higher reported area, and a 0.4-million-ton increase in Canada corn, also on higher reported area.
Other important 2012/13 coarse grain production changes include a 1.5-million-ton reduction for Ukraine barley, a 1.0-million-ton reduction for Russia barley, a 0.5-million-ton reduction for Canada barley, and a 0.3-million-ton reduction for Canada oats. Brazil 2011/12 corn production is raised again this month, up 1.0 million tons, based on the latest reports from national and state statistical agencies.
Download the complete World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report published July 11, 2012 from the link below (PDF).