According to the latest El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) diagnostic discussion issued by the Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, there is a 50-55% chance of El Niño onset during the Northern Hemisphere fall 2018 (September-November), increasing to 65-70% during winter 2018-19.

The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume continue to predict the onset of El Niño sometime during the Northern Hemisphere fall and continuing through the winter.

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