The latest ENSO El Niño Advisory indicates that the current strong El Niño is weakening, that positive equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continue across most of the Pacific Ocean, and that a transition to ENSO-neutral is likely during the late Northern Hemisphere spring or early summer 2016, with close to a 50% chance for La Niña conditions to develop by the fall.

The full advisory is avaialble here.